AVOID 1: Summary of the emissions mitigation scenarios: parts 1 & 2

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AVOID 1: Summary of the emissions mitigation scenarios: parts 1 & 2

April 4, 2009
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Here we present the emissions and the global surface temperature changes for three sets of mitigation scenarios. The first set of mitigation scenarios are based on SRES A1B with a range of peak emissions years from 2016 to 2030 and a range of post peak rates of emissions reductions. The remaining two sets are based on SRES A1B but with reduced emission growth rates in the pre peak emissions and a range of post peak emissions reductions. In addition to the SRES A1B baseline scenario, SRES A1FI and SRES B2 are also presented.

The mitigation scenarios are multi-gas and consist of the Kyoto greenhouse gases and other atmospheric pollutants, including SO2. In the majority of scenarios the global emissions of Kyoto greenhouse gases increase by 53% to 66% by 2020 from 1990 levels. By 2050, the emissions of Kyoto gases have decreased by 2% to 66% from 1990 levels and in a few instances increased up to 54%.