A set of approximately 90 emissions scenarios have been constructed and temperature responses simulated. These enabled us to investigate the impact on future warming of changing the peak year of greenhouse gas emissions, the pre-peak emissions, the post-peak rate of emissions decrease and the long-term emissions floor. A sub-set of these scenarios has now been selected to take forward into the second part of WS1, in which impacts and economic costs will be estimated. In parallel, we have “downscaled” socio economic scenarios for use in the forthcoming impacts calculations.
Recently, it has emerged that the emissions supplied for the GLOCAF model were incomplete, with some missing emission sources. A method has been devised by OCC to correct these emissions and the AVOID consortium will run the new set in the near future.