AVOID 1: Amazon Case Study: Development of a new framework for characterising dangerous climate change impacts

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AVOID 1: Amazon Case Study: Development of a new framework for characterising dangerous climate change impacts

April 6, 2010
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This study includes the progress towards development of a framework which begins by defining a ‘dangerous impact’ and produces a range of global climate change and associated emissions. This reverses the order of the more usual technique and avoids the resulting large uncertainty in the impact. The first outcome of this work is the construction of ‘threshold-based’ dangerous climate impacts framework. The outcomes from the application of this framework to the Amazon region include:

  • Selection of a ‘dangerous impact’ in Amazonia of forest loss.
  •  Identification of a regional climate regime associated with this impact in terms of measures of precipitation.
  •  Preliminary assessment of global mean temperature rise which could lead to the impact: which is greater than 2°C in the models sampled.
  •  Proposed link to mitigation scenarios using established relationships between global mean temperatures and peak emissions.