A summary of the AVOID programme and relevant findings for the C0P 16 conference.
- There is uncertainty in the size of the 2020 emission pledges.
- For the most optimistic interpretation (around 48-49 GtCO2e) it is just about possible to limit warming to <2°C with >50% probability, less likely with >66% probability.
- BUT there is an emissions GAP between the median pledge estimate and the median IAM model simulation.
- AND the least optimistic interpretation (around 54-55 GtCO2e) does not appear compatible with <2°C.
- Depends on what is feasible! IAMs give an estimate of the current economic and technical feasibility.
- The analysis in the EU and UNEP reports are broadly similar.
- 1.5°C may require overshooting temperature, and bigger 2020 cuts,
- and long-term reductions beyond current view of IAM feasibility.