AVOID 1: AVOID results for a pre-COP-16 briefing at Cancun

pre-cop briefing

AVOID 1: AVOID results for a pre-COP-16 briefing at Cancun

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A summary of the AVOID programme and relevant findings for the C0P 16 conference.

Key points:

  • There is uncertainty in the size of the 2020 emission pledges.
  • For the most optimistic interpretation (around 48-49 GtCO2e) it is just about possible to limit warming to <2°C with >50%  probability, less likely with >66% probability.
  •  BUT there is an emissions GAP between the median pledge estimate and the median IAM model simulation.
  • AND the least optimistic interpretation (around 54-55 GtCO2e) does not appear compatible with <2°C.
  •  Depends on what is feasible! IAMs give an estimate of the current economic and technical feasibility.
  • The analysis in the EU and UNEP reports are broadly similar.
  • 1.5°C may require overshooting temperature, and bigger 2020 cuts,
  • and long-term reductions beyond current view of IAM feasibility.