AVOID 1: Are Copenhagen Accord pledges compatible with a 2 °C warming limit?

copenhagen

AVOID 1: Are Copenhagen Accord pledges compatible with a 2 °C warming limit?

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A presentation by Jason Lowe and Laila Gohar.

Key findings

  • Without further reductions the 2020 pledges will not keep warming below 2°C
  • Limiting 21st century warming to 2°C can be done in several ways:
  • —-Annex 1 reduction of 80% on 1990 levels by 2050 and non annex 1 reduction by at least 57% below BAU – by 2050.
  • —-Annex 1 reduction of 95% on 1990 levels by 2050 and non annex 1 reduction by at least 53% below BAU – by 2050.
  • If aerosol emissions are lower and warming limited even beyond 2100 then non annex 1 emissions may need to fall to 67% below BAU at 2050.