A presentation by Jason Lowe and Laila Gohar.
- Without further reductions the 2020 pledges will not keep warming below 2°C
- Limiting 21st century warming to 2°C can be done in several ways:
- —-Annex 1 reduction of 80% on 1990 levels by 2050 and non annex 1 reduction by at least 57% below BAU – by 2050.
- —-Annex 1 reduction of 95% on 1990 levels by 2050 and non annex 1 reduction by at least 53% below BAU – by 2050.
- If aerosol emissions are lower and warming limited even beyond 2100 then non annex 1 emissions may need to fall to 67% below BAU at 2050.