Literature review and synthesis of recent climate change impacts research (B1b)

This report presents an assessment of the evidence on the global and regional impacts of climate change that was presented in AR5 together with research that has been published subsequently. It draws together results from several independent studies across a number of sectors, and seeks to present them in a consistent form as far as the literature permits, given that the studies are independent and use a variety of different approaches.

Projections of future climate change in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published in 2014 were based on a set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), corresponding to different levels of anthropogenic forcing on the climate system. However, to date few studies have assessed the global and regional impacts under these RCPs, so little evidence was reviewed in AR5. This report contains an updated quantitative synthesis of available estimates of the global and regional impacts of climate change under the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as far as the current literature permits. Many of the recent publications derive from the ISI-MIP2 climate change impacts model inter-comparison project. Where simulations have yet to be published using RCPs literature from older scenarios is used.