What are the implications of temporarily overshooting a long-term temperature goal of 2°C? Policy card A3 D2b

AVOID 2 and the IPCC have assessed future scenarios where global average temperatures ‘overshoot’ 2°C of warming before returning below that level. In the models that generated these scenarios, reversing more than 0.1°C of overshoot by 2100 requires large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). BECCS has been proposed as the key tool to recover an overshoot whilst meeting global energy needs, but it is considered to be challenging to implement at a large scale. Reversing more than 0.3°C of overshoot with BECCS is likely to take centuries and require a large fraction of the planet’s land surface area. Such a high level of overshoot may also have potentially irreversible consequences.

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