Investigation of overshooting in the AVOID 2 INDC climate pathways (A3)

Investigation of overshooting in the AVOID 2 INDC climate pathways (A3)

Recent developments in climate policy have led to the provision of a range of voluntary emission pledges from nations around the world (known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs) as part of the UNFCCC CoP process. These pledges are typically for emissions levels in year 2030 and there has been much consideration of the issue of whether they are compatible with a warming limit of 2°C or less.

Previous work has shown that achieving the UNFCCC’s long term climate goals might require there to be a so-called “overshoot” during the 21st century.

Earlier AVOID reports have looked at the concept of overshoot in a range of different emissions and climate pathways, reviewing current literature and performing some new analysis (AVOID 2 2015c). Overshoot is defined here as when one or more important climate metrics temporarily exceeds its long-term or 2100 value. Most focus has so far been on greenhouse gas concentration overshoots and global average temperature overshoots.

In this study we analyse a new set of emission and climate pathways developed to study the climate impacts of the recent international declared contributions to future mitigation (INDCs).