How realistic are low-carbon pathways derived by energy models for BRICS countries? (C5)

steel pipes in crude oil factory

How realistic are low-carbon pathways derived by energy models for BRICS countries? (C5)

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AVOID 2 modelling suggests that the lowest-cost pathways for limiting average global warming to below 2°C will involve emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS countries) rapidly decreasing their greenhouse gas emissions. To consider whether this is realistic and feasible, the lowest-cost pathways for key emerging economies from the AVOID 2 least-cost energy model have been compared to these countries’ most ambitious scenarios for climate change mitigation. The comparison suggests that in some cases the AVOID 2 pathways involve deploying low-carbon technologies more rapidly than the countries’ own scenarios. Deployment at the rates suggested by the countries’ scenarios implies more effort from other sectors and regions in order to limit warming to 2°C, and increasing the associated global mitigation costs.

 

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