Policy cards Archives · AVOID 2 climate change research programme

How realistic are low-carbon pathways derived by energy models for BRICS countries? (C5)

AVOID 2 modelling suggests that the lowest-cost pathways for limiting average global warming to below 2°C will involve emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS countries) rapidly decreasing their greenhouse gas emissions. To consider whether this is realistic and feasible, the […]

What are the implications of temporarily overshooting a long-term temperature goal of 2°C? Policy card A3 D2b

AVOID 2 and the IPCC have assessed future scenarios where global average temperatures ‘overshoot’ 2°C of warming before returning below that level. In the models that generated these scenarios, reversing more than 0.1°C of overshoot by 2100 requires large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal […]

How does climate impacts research make use of IPCC scenarios? Policy card B

Like most climate impacts research results, the AVOID 2 findings are usually stated with reference to a small set of future scenarios. There are separate scenarios
for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration (the Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs) and for socioeconomic development (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, or SSPs). This […]

How can we minimise negative impacts on ocean health? Policy card E1-E2

Rising temperatures and sea levels, acidification, and deoxygenation are carbon dioxide (CO2)-driven stressors that are already affecting the ocean, as well as the life it supports and the benefits it provides. These effects are in addition to pollution, over-fishing and lost habitats and their combination is […]

What are climate ‘tipping points’ and how likely are they? (Policy card A5)

Evidence from ice core and sediment records shows that in the past, Earth’s climate has reached critical thresholds, triggering abrupt and rapid change. Whilst the reasons behind such ‘tipping points’ are not always clear, evidence from climate models shows that they could be reached again as the […]