Emissions scenarios and climate change (A) Archives · AVOID 2 climate change research programme

Investigation of overshooting in the AVOID 2 INDC climate pathways (A3)

Recent developments in climate policy have led to the provision of a range of voluntary emission pledges from nations around the world (known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs) as part of the UNFCCC CoP process. These pledges are typically for emissions levels in year 2030 and […]

What are the implications of temporarily overshooting a long-term temperature goal of 2°C? Policy card A3 D2b

AVOID 2 and the IPCC have assessed future scenarios where global average temperatures ‘overshoot’ 2°C of warming before returning below that level. In the models that generated these scenarios, reversing more than 0.1°C of overshoot by 2100 requires large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal […]

Regionalisation of scenarios at new forcing levels (A4)

This study has three purposes:

The first is to confirm the suitability of the simple climate model used within AVOID. We find that our simple model approach does provide a robust replication of more complex climate models. This provides added confidence for other AVOID 2 climate simulations.
The […]

What are climate ‘tipping points’ and how likely are they? (Policy card A5)

Evidence from ice core and sediment records shows that in the past, Earth’s climate has reached critical thresholds, triggering abrupt and rapid change. Whilst the reasons behind such ‘tipping points’ are not always clear, evidence from climate models shows that they could be reached again as the […]

Overshoot scenarios and their climate response (A3)

This report reviews the current literature regarding “overshoot” scenarios where some aspect of the climate such as the temperature or GHG concentrations temporarily exceed a given target. The aim is to characterise such scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and where possible the climate to these scenarios, however […]