The maps below show the changing likelihood of the following thresholds being passed:
(see footnote for further information).
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The maps show the chance that regional-scale aggregated impacts exceed defined values: population exposed to river flooding increases by over 25%, population in water stress increases by over 10%, over 20% of cropland experiences a decline in suitability, and more than 25% of population is exposed to heatwaves. Chances are derived from the distribution of impacts in a given year and assume that all of the individual relationships between global mean temperature change and impact are equally plausible. The thresholds are arbitrarily defined, and are all expressed as percentages of some measure of exposure: – for the water and flood indicators they are the same as those used by King et al. (2015) Climate Change: A Risk Assessment . Percentage thresholds are used to enable comparisons between regions and therefore to illustrate the regional variation in impact, but the same percentage thresholds translate into different absolute thresholds in different regions. The chances are calculated assuming population follows SSP2 and the chances would be different under different scenarios. More information on this analysis