Publications

Publications

Latest publications

publication

AVOID 1: Future worlds: a narrative description of a plausible world following climate change

February 13, 2012
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This report presents a short narrative summary description of the potential impacts of climate change at three spatial scales – global, city and community. At each scale, the summary draws together evidence from AVOID reports, the published literature and expert judgement to present a high-level overview of what […]

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AVOID 1: What are the consequences of temperature overshoot on future sea-level rise?

January 20, 2012
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Previous computer modelling studies have shown that for scenarios where atmospheric CO2 concentration is stabilised after an initial increase, the near-surface air temperature is rapidly near-stabilised but sizeable rates of sea-level rise can continue for more than 1000 years.

This study shows that if CO2 […]

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AVOID 1: Reconciling LULUFC accounting with modeled mitigation targets

January 16, 2012
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The flux of CO2 due to land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) is estimated in a variety of science- and policy-based assessments. Each approach uses different data and methods as they are designed for different purposes. Results are not directly comparable with each other and […]

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AVOID 1: Meteorological factors influencing forest fire risk under climate change mitigation

December 21, 2011
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Forest fires present a serious hazard to humans and ecosystems in many parts of the world, and fires over large forest ecosystems can be a major agent of conversion of biomass and soil organic matter to CO2.

Here we make use of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index […]

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AVOID 1: Reducing the uncertainty in simple model projections

December 19, 2011
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Simple climate models are widely used in most climate mitigation pathways studies, including AVOID and the Committee on Climate Change’s carbon budget analysis, but there are questions regarding their reliability and how key assumptions influence the results for aggressive mitigation scenarios. The aim of this report is […]

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