Publications

Publications

Latest publications

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AVOID 1: China’s low carbon technologies to 2050

December 14, 2011
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Exploring the technological feasibility of low-carbon, sustainable development pathways and understanding the barriers that may hinder their progress is vital for identifying the actions that countries need to take if the internationally-agreed goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C is to be achieved. In […]

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AVOID 1: PAGE09 V1.5 economic impacts model reconciliation with MAGICC simple climate model

October 11, 2011
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The PAGE (Policy Analysis of Greenhouse Effect) integrated assessment model (IAM) was used in the AVOID programme to estimate the cost of avoided impacts. Estimates of costs of climate impacts depend critically on the ability of the IAM to produce a credible temperature rise for a given emissions […]

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AVOID 1: Are Copenhagen Accord pledges compatible with a 2 °C warming limit?

A presentation by Jason Lowe and Laila Gohar.

Key findings

Without further reductions the 2020 pledges will not keep warming below 2°C
Limiting 21st century warming to 2°C can be done in several ways:
—-Annex 1 reduction of 80% on 1990 levels by 2050 and non […]

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AVOID 1: Health Impacts of Catastrophic Climate Change: Expert Workshop

August 2, 2011
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This report describes the results from the AVOID workshop on the impacts of catastrophic climate change on human health. Current methods of estimating future health impacts do not address the impacts of extreme events or weather disasters. Thus, for this workshop, narratives of low probability high impact extreme […]

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AVOID 1: Avoided climate change in an Earth system ensemble

July 5, 2011
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An Earth system model, HadCM3C, is used to explore the consequences of the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions compared to a ‘business as usual’ scenario.

The model is significantly more advanced than models typically used for providing mitigation advice. We use a collection of model runs, known as […]

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