Publications -


AVOID 1: Meteorological factors influencing forest fire risk under climate change mitigation

December 21, 2011

Forest fires present a serious hazard to humans and ecosystems in many parts of the world, and fires over large forest ecosystems can be a major agent of conversion of biomass and soil organic matter to CO2.

Here we make use of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index […]


AVOID 1: Reducing the uncertainty in simple model projections

December 19, 2011

Simple climate models are widely used in most climate mitigation pathways studies, including AVOID and the Committee on Climate Change’s carbon budget analysis, but there are questions regarding their reliability and how key assumptions influence the results for aggressive mitigation scenarios. The aim of this report is […]


AVOID 1: China’s low carbon technologies to 2050

December 14, 2011

Exploring the technological feasibility of low-carbon, sustainable development pathways and understanding the barriers that may hinder their progress is vital for identifying the actions that countries need to take if the internationally-agreed goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C is to be achieved. In […]


AVOID 1: PAGE09 V1.5 economic impacts model reconciliation with MAGICC simple climate model

October 11, 2011

The PAGE (Policy Analysis of Greenhouse Effect) integrated assessment model (IAM) was used in the AVOID programme to estimate the cost of avoided impacts. Estimates of costs of climate impacts depend critically on the ability of the IAM to produce a credible temperature rise for a given emissions […]

AVOID 1: Are Copenhagen Accord pledges compatible with a 2 °C warming limit?

A presentation by Jason Lowe and Laila Gohar.

Key findings

Without further reductions the 2020 pledges will not keep warming below 2°C
Limiting 21st century warming to 2°C can be done in several ways:
—-Annex 1 reduction of 80% on 1990 levels by 2050 and non […]

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