Research

 

The AVOID 2 research programme aims to develop and communicate objective scientific and economic research and analysis to both inform and support UK policy in ongoing international climate negotiations, leading up to the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP 21) in Paris. An analysis of the implications of any global agreement at the COP will also be performed. In addition, AVOID 2 will provide information relevant to discussions and decisions on the pace and scale of action before and after 2020.

The research programme comprises six broadly distinct but linked research areas, which come under the themes of climate system, climate impacts, and climate mitigation. It brings together a wide range of leading expertise in climate science and modelling, the interactions between the climate and the biosphere, hydrology, ecology, economics, psychology, sociology and a range of engineering disciplines.

As well as extensive modelling and characterisation of the range of emissions pathways consistent with a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) and their technological and economic feasibility, the programme will explore and assess the projected impacts for each of these LTTGs, including for policy-relevant issues such as economic growth and food security. The programme will also examine the risks posed by impacts originating outside the UK.

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Research programme structure

Research programme structure


Climate system


Emissions scenarios and climate change
Emissions scenarios and climate change

Understanding the link between emissions pathway and climate response for a range of temperature limits.

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Climate impacts


Climate change impacts
Climate change impacts

Expected impacts under different emissions pathways, and how adaptation might reduce these.

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Economic risks of imported impacts
Economic risks of imported impacts

Valuation of impact and mitigation costs and their impact on the global economy.

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Climate mitigation


Rates of decarbonisation
Rates of decarbonisation

The range of feasible emissions pathways for meeting long term temperature goals.

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Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

Feasibility of different levels of negative emissions, focusing on BECCS. Barriers to deployment of BECCS, and cost implications using expert elicitation.

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Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)

Greenhouse gas emissions and sinks associated with land use, land-use change and forestry, including peat, deforestation, agriculture, and coastal sinks.

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