emissions scenarios Archives · AVOID 2 climate change research programme

AVOID 1: Emissions pathways to limit climate change

December 14, 2012

Global greenhouse gas emissions are rising, but they need to start to fall and reduce to a substantially lower level if we are to limit global temperature rise in this century. This note shows results of a scientific study into how soon emissions need to start falling, how […]


AVOID 1: Comparison of AVOID work with overseas analyses

August 8, 2012

AVOID has developed a large number of emissions scenarios and made projections of future climate changes associate with each. To date no direct quantitative comparison with other modelling frameworks has been performed. This study compares AVOID climate projections with those from a number of different models, from Integrated […]


AVOID 1: What are the consequences of temperature overshoot on future sea-level rise?

January 20, 2012

Previous computer modelling studies have shown that for scenarios where atmospheric CO2 concentration is stabilised after an initial increase, the near-surface air temperature is rapidly near-stabilised but sizeable rates of sea-level rise can continue for more than 1000 years.

This study shows that if CO2 […]

AVOID 1: The AVOID Programme and Climate Change Scenarios

A presentation giving a summary of the AVOID 1 programme’s  emissions pathway results, including:

How is a 2°C target defined?
It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do so. Early action maximizes chance of achieving this.
There is some limited flexibility […]