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publication

AVOID 1: The significance of the signal of the impacts of climate change over the near term

December 3, 2012
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Most climate change impact assessments have focused on impacts in the middle of the 21st century or later. This study examines the potential impacts of underlying climate change to 2030, in order to identify the magnitude and location of the near-term consequences of climate change.

The magnitude […]

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publication

AVOID 1: Scoping study: modelling the interaction between mitigation and adaptation for decision making

August 16, 2012
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Key outcomes

• Adaptation and mitigation are complementary measures.

• Globally, one cannot trade the concept of ‘1 degree of mitigation’ with that of ‘1 degree of adaptation’, owing to the very different potential for adaptation in different sectors and regions, the issue of scale, the dynamics of […]

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AVOID 1: Comparison of AVOID work with overseas analyses

August 8, 2012
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AVOID has developed a large number of emissions scenarios and made projections of future climate changes associate with each. To date no direct quantitative comparison with other modelling frameworks has been performed. This study compares AVOID climate projections with those from a number of different models, from Integrated […]

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AVOID 1: Implications of technological development and regional climate damage costs for international climate policy

May 23, 2012
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We attempt a first analysis of the dynamics of the current international climate negotiations in terms of a novel stylised model of economic growth that balances short‐term economic wellbeing against the disutility of climate change in the longer‐term.  As a first approximation, we see that countries […]

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publication

AVOID 1: Improved rapid response climate impacts projections

April 2, 2012
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A new modelling framework is developed to make rapid projections of climate change impacts, at a regionally aggregated level, for a number of different climate change impacts. The framework uses existing and accepted modelling and statistical techniques and incorporates scientific understanding of uncertainty in projections of future climate […]

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