Global and regional impacts of climate change under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (B2b)

This report presents an assessment of global and regional impacts of climate change under six different levels of climate forcing and five plausible socio-economic scenarios which define population exposure to this change. Four of the climate forcings are based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and produce median estimates of increase in temperature in 2100 above … Read more

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets (C6)

In recent years, there has been considerable global and regional interest in shale gas, which it has been suggested could play a role as a bridging fuel to a low-carbon future, and which has led to a huge increase in indigenous gas production in the US. There remains, however, considerable uncertainty over shale gas resource availability … Read more

Regionalisation of scenarios at new forcing levels (A4)

This study has three purposes: The first is to confirm the suitability of the simple climate model used within AVOID. We find that our simple model approach does provide a robust replication of more complex climate models. This provides added confidence for other AVOID 2 climate simulations. The second purpose is to examine the climate … Read more

Greenhouse gas emissions from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) (E1)

The objective of this AVOID project was to provide a scientific review and assessment of the state of knowledge relating to terrestrial carbon sinks. The project builds on the work of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) to explore: 1) how much carbon is stored in terrestrial ecosystems and soils and how vulnerable that carbon is … Read more

Literature review of the potential of “blue carbon” activities to reduce emissions (E2)

“Blue carbon” is defined as the carbon stored, sequestered or released from coastal ecosystems of tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrass meadows. A great deal of effort has gone into developing a policy framework around avoiding emissions from deforestation and degradation in tropical forests (REDD/REDD+). However, marine vegetated habitats are significant carbon sinks that are being … Read more

The impact of weather extremes on agricultural commodity prices (F3)

The global market for agricultural commodities has seen sudden price increases in response to extreme weather events in the past, and as the climate changes during the 21st century, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will also change. The IPCC  assesses with high confidence that “all aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, … Read more

How can we minimise negative impacts on ocean health? Policy card E1-E2

Rising temperatures and sea levels, acidification, and deoxygenation are carbon dioxide (CO2)-driven stressors that are already affecting the ocean, as well as the life it supports and the benefits it provides. These effects are in addition to pollution, over-fishing and lost habitats and their combination is likely to be worse than the sum of the … Read more

The impacts of climate change avoided by future reductions in emissions as defined in the Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (B2c)

This report presents an assessment of the global and regional impacts of climate change under climate scenarios based on the Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDCs) declared by parties to the UNFCCC as of early November 2015 and as interpreted by DECC. The estimated total emissions in 2030 are 54 GtCO2eq. Impacts depend on emissions after 2030, … Read more

Literature review and synthesis of recent climate change impacts research (B1b)

This report presents an assessment of the evidence on the global and regional impacts of climate change that was presented in AR5 together with research that has been published subsequently. It draws together results from several independent studies across a number of sectors, and seeks to present them in a consistent form as far as … Read more

What future global impacts on people could be avoided by limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees? (B2b)

  Without rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions, the effects that the climate has on global society will be increasingly felt and could in some cases intensify by the end of the century. The AVOID 2 research programme has modelled how climate change will affect people across the globe, such as through water availability and … Read more