Climate change: assessing the risks

by Dan Bernie, Met Office In late 2014 AVOID 2 was asked to perform some calculations for a project on risk for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the UK Government. These looked at the future temperature response and the impact of additional earth system processes, such as permafrost thawing. Earlier this year I joined … Read more

Carbon emissions would drop by 12% in UK, If we Go all electric – Study Suggests

Electric Vehicle

The past decade have witnessed a rise in EV sales like never before. With Tesla leading the forefront in electric vehicle innovation and production, many UK And German Companies are also starting to follow the foot steps. Practically, it can save you considerable fuel cash depending on where you live. And now, a research paper … Read more

Work Package A: Emission scenarios and climate change

Understanding the link between emissions pathway and climate response for a range of temperature limits. Summary The main human influence on the climate comes from the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. The global debate on mitigation of climate change focuses on the level of … Read more

Global and regional impacts of climate change under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (B2b)

This report presents an assessment of global and regional impacts of climate change under six different levels of climate forcing and five plausible socio-economic scenarios which define population exposure to this change. Four of the climate forcings are based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and produce median estimates of increase in temperature in 2100 above … Read more

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets (C6)

In recent years, there has been considerable global and regional interest in shale gas, which it has been suggested could play a role as a bridging fuel to a low-carbon future, and which has led to a huge increase in indigenous gas production in the US. There remains, however, considerable uncertainty over shale gas resource availability … Read more

Regionalisation of scenarios at new forcing levels (A4)

This study has three purposes: The first is to confirm the suitability of the simple climate model used within AVOID. We find that our simple model approach does provide a robust replication of more complex climate models. This provides added confidence for other AVOID 2 climate simulations. The second purpose is to examine the climate … Read more

Greenhouse gas emissions from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) (E1)

The objective of this AVOID project was to provide a scientific review and assessment of the state of knowledge relating to terrestrial carbon sinks. The project builds on the work of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) to explore: 1) how much carbon is stored in terrestrial ecosystems and soils and how vulnerable that carbon is … Read more

Literature review of the potential of “blue carbon” activities to reduce emissions (E2)

“Blue carbon” is defined as the carbon stored, sequestered or released from coastal ecosystems of tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrass meadows. A great deal of effort has gone into developing a policy framework around avoiding emissions from deforestation and degradation in tropical forests (REDD/REDD+). However, marine vegetated habitats are significant carbon sinks that are being … Read more

The impact of weather extremes on agricultural commodity prices (F3)

The global market for agricultural commodities has seen sudden price increases in response to extreme weather events in the past, and as the climate changes during the 21st century, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will also change. The IPCC  assesses with high confidence that “all aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, … Read more

How can we minimise negative impacts on ocean health? Policy card E1-E2

Rising temperatures and sea levels, acidification, and deoxygenation are carbon dioxide (CO2)-driven stressors that are already affecting the ocean, as well as the life it supports and the benefits it provides. These effects are in addition to pollution, over-fishing and lost habitats and their combination is likely to be worse than the sum of the … Read more