An updated view of tipping points and the relevance for long-term climate goals (A5)

While some aspects of climate change can be viewed as becoming proportionately larger with increasing forcings, other aspects may feature more complex, nonlinear behaviour. This can include abrupt and/or irreversible change, which may be associated with key thresholds. Such behaviour must be considered differently in assessments of the potential benefits of mitigation: it implies, for … Read more

COP 20 – another few steps along the road

COP 20 – another few steps along the road As the sun sets on another COP it is useful to reflect on the scientific evidence that will be needed to inform decisions in the lead up to the Paris COP in 2015, when the world is aiming for a global agreement on greenhouse gas emissions … Read more

Review of existing emissions pathways and evaluation of decarbonisation rates (C1)

Achieving deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required to limit the risks we face from climate change.  This assessment presents an overview of recent studies examining GHG emission pathways that are compatible with limiting average global temperature rise to levels close to 2°C or at least below 2.5°C by 2100.  In particular, the … Read more

AVOID 1: Summary of the Committee on Climate Change’s 2016 peak emission scenarios

Here we present the emissions, global concentration and global surface temperature changes for three mitigation scenarios that have emissions peak in 2016 from the Committee on Climate Change’s 2008 report. The mitigation scenarios are multi-gas and consist of the Kyoto greenhouse gases and other atmospheric pollutants, including SO2. In all scenarios the global emissions of … Read more