It is well know that different parts of the world are linked together through physical teleconnections, links in the climate system which mean that climate variations in one part of the world can affect many other regions. The almost global extent of the response to an El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is a clear example of this when considering present day climate variability. Increasingly there is an interest in also looking at how nations are linked together socio-economically, including through global supply chains and prices within international markets. Such links mean that climate impacts on one nation can affect many others even if there is no physical teleconnection, and sometimes even if there are no direct trade links.
What do we already know?
Having recognised the potential issues associated with global interconnections a number of studies using several different approaches have improved our understanding of the different types of links and even quantified the sensitivity of certain types of changes in one part of the world due to drivers elsewhere. However, there is limited consistency between studies, and coverage of links and nations is still very limited. A few studies have started to consider the role of climate variability and change as drivers but acknowledge that more work is needed.
What will this research achieve?
This work will apply two different approaches to quantify the impact of climate change on major supply chains relevant to the United Kingdom. One major advance will be the use of improved climate change scenarios that are both up-to-date and consistent with other aspects of AVOID 2 research on regional impacts. A second advance will be to link this work to attribution studies of recent climate events in order to provide some guidance on how impacts are already starting to be amplified by global interconnections.
What is the policy relevance?
This work will focus on the imported impacts to the United Kingdom and so will be relevant to the next UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Additionally, the understanding of how global interconnectedness can potentially multiply impacts will provide useful additional information to the discussions within UNFCCC on the long-term climate temperature goal.
Research area description and outputs
F1. Imported economic risks: overview of findings from AVOID 2
F2. Key commodity chains at risk from climate change
F3. The economic impact of weather extremes
A report on the impact of weather extremes in a future climate on agricultural commodity chains and the global economy.