AVOID 1: Summary of the Committee on Climate Change’s 2016 peak emission scenarios

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AVOID 1: Summary of the Committee on Climate Change’s 2016 peak emission scenarios

February 5, 2009
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Here we present the emissions, global concentration and global surface temperature changes for three mitigation scenarios that have emissions peak in 2016 from the Committee on Climate Change’s 2008 report.

The mitigation scenarios are multi-gas and consist of the Kyoto greenhouse gases and other atmospheric pollutants, including SO2. In all scenarios the global emissions of Kyoto greenhouse gases increase by 53% by 2020 from 1990 levels. By 2050, the emissions of Kyoto gases have decreased by 35% to 48% from 1990 levels.

The CO2 equivalent concentrations in all scenarios are approximately 500 ppmv by 2100 and the two more aggressive mitigation scenarios show a peaking rather than a stabilisation in concentrations.

The mitigation scenarios project between 37% to 44% probability of staying below 20C in temperature rise by 2100. All scenarios show around a 20C decrease in 2100 temperature rise from the SRES A1B baseline projection.

The emissions floors have little effect on global temperature rise or CO2 equivalent concentrations before 2100 but do have effects in the decades approaching 2200; however these floors have no clear/robust values.