AVOID 1: Comparison of AVOID work with overseas analyses

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AVOID 1: Comparison of AVOID work with overseas analyses

August 8, 2012
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AVOID has developed a large number of emissions scenarios and made projections of future climate changes associate with each. To date no direct quantitative comparison with other modelling frameworks has been performed. This study compares AVOID climate projections with those from a number of different models, from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with relatively simple climate representations through to state of the art Earth Systems Models (ESM) participating in the fifth assessment report of the IPCC (AR5).

Comparisons with ESM shows that the probabilistic projections from AVOID compare well with those from a multi model ensemble participating in AR5 supporting the AVOID modelling frameworks continued use in providing mitigation advice.

Comparisons of the AVOID modelling framework with IAMs from the EMF22 project highlighted a number of significant errors in particular gas cycles in specific models.

Errors across business as usual and a range of mitigation scenarios are highlighted for particular model with suggestions made as to how mitigation advice based on these models may have been affected. Over all the comparisons suggest that model work in needed in refining the climate representations in many IAMs. Despite the errors highlighted in this report, most of the IAMs examined for model of the scenarios from EMF22 where within the projected range of results from the AVOID modelling framework.