This analysis considers 20 variables covering social, economic, technology and natural resource factors deemed to be relevant to mitigation for a set of over 100 countries. Of these, the analysis shows that the most important factors are GDP per capita levels and growth rates, the manufacturing share of output, levels of energy imports, and fossil and non-fossil resources especially oil, coal and solar. Wind and forestry resources, net imports, and nuclear and hydro energy are more minor drivers of inter-country variation.
The analysis shows that countries are predominantly grouped within geographic regions. This arises partly from similarities in natural resources within regions, but also from similarities in wealth and other socio-economic factors. It would therefore seem that this analysis best supports an approach to country differentiation based in the first instance on geographical regions. However, the groupings also highlight exceptions arising from differences in either fossil or renewable natural resources.
Groups of developing and developed countries are also broadly supported. This is unsurprising given the inclusion of economic factors within this study, but in any case any approach to target-setting or the provision of finance, capacity-building or technological support should also closely consider resource differences.