Regionalisation of scenarios at new forcing levels (A4)

This study has three purposes:

  • The first is to confirm the suitability of the simple climate model used within AVOID. We find that our simple model approach does provide a robust replication of more complex climate models. This provides added confidence for other AVOID 2 climate simulations.
  • The second purpose is to examine the climate response in some of the large gaps between the RCPS used in IPCC AR5. This is needed because future international modelling projects will likely not report on this until at least 2017. The two new forcing levels considered are 7 Wm-2 and 3.7 Wm-2 (at year 2100). These pathways may be considered as alternatives to the mitigation policy reference case and a near miss of 2 degree scenario respectively. The median global average warming relative to pre-industrial is found to be 4.1°C for the 7 Wm-2 scenario, and still rising in 2100. The 3.7 Wm-2 scenario peaks at 2.5°C before reducing to 2.4°C in 2100.
  • The third purpose of this study is to provide regional climate change information that can be used in impact studies. The data has been supplied to work package B of AVOID 2