Reports

publication

AVOID 1: Meteorological factors influencing forest fire risk under climate change mitigation

December 21, 2011
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Forest fires present a serious hazard to humans and ecosystems in many parts of the world, and fires over large forest ecosystems can be a major agent of conversion of biomass and soil organic matter to CO2.

Here we make use of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index […]

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publication

AVOID 1: Reducing the uncertainty in simple model projections

December 19, 2011
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Simple climate models are widely used in most climate mitigation pathways studies, including AVOID and the Committee on Climate Change’s carbon budget analysis, but there are questions regarding their reliability and how key assumptions influence the results for aggressive mitigation scenarios. The aim of this report is […]

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publication

AVOID 1: PAGE09 V1.5 economic impacts model reconciliation with MAGICC simple climate model

October 11, 2011
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The PAGE (Policy Analysis of Greenhouse Effect) integrated assessment model (IAM) was used in the AVOID programme to estimate the cost of avoided impacts. Estimates of costs of climate impacts depend critically on the ability of the IAM to produce a credible temperature rise for a given emissions […]

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publication

AVOID 1: Health Impacts of Catastrophic Climate Change: Expert Workshop

August 2, 2011
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This report describes the results from the AVOID workshop on the impacts of catastrophic climate change on human health. Current methods of estimating future health impacts do not address the impacts of extreme events or weather disasters. Thus, for this workshop, narratives of low probability high impact extreme […]

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publication

AVOID 1: Avoided climate change in an Earth system ensemble

July 5, 2011
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An Earth system model, HadCM3C, is used to explore the consequences of the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions compared to a ‘business as usual’ scenario.

The model is significantly more advanced than models typically used for providing mitigation advice. We use a collection of model runs, known as […]

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