Publications

a smoke stack against a dark blue sky, very spaceage looking

Investigation of overshooting in the AVOID 2 INDC climate pathways (A3)

Recent developments in climate policy have led to the provision of a range of voluntary emission pledges from nations around the world (known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs) as part of the UNFCCC CoP process. These pledges are typically for emissions levels in year 2030 and […]

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Shaping the next breakthrough in climate science: Research priorities in 2016 and beyond

May 11, 2016
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The COP21 proceedings in December 2015 and subsequent Paris Agreement signalled the beginning of a new phase of action on climate change. Policymakers, business and academia now have an important role to work together to address the identified gaps in our knowledge, to understand the options and develop […]

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What are the implications of temporarily overshooting a long-term temperature goal of 2°C? Policy card A3 D2b

AVOID 2 and the IPCC have assessed future scenarios where global average temperatures ‘overshoot’ 2°C of warming before returning below that level. In the models that generated these scenarios, reversing more than 0.1°C of overshoot by 2100 requires large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal […]

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How does climate impacts research make use of IPCC scenarios? Policy card B

Like most climate impacts research results, the AVOID 2 findings are usually stated with reference to a small set of future scenarios. There are separate scenarios
for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration (the Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs) and for socioeconomic development (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, or SSPs). This […]

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Huge hurricane approaching Southeast Asia. Elements of this image furnished by NASA

Regionalisation of scenarios at new forcing levels (A4)

This study has three purposes:

The first is to confirm the suitability of the simple climate model used within AVOID. We find that our simple model approach does provide a robust replication of more complex climate models. This provides added confidence for other AVOID 2 climate simulations.
The […]

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