modelling Archives · Page 2 of 3 · AVOID 2 climate change research programme


AVOID 1: What are the consequences of temperature overshoot on future sea-level rise?

January 20, 2012

Previous computer modelling studies have shown that for scenarios where atmospheric CO2 concentration is stabilised after an initial increase, the near-surface air temperature is rapidly near-stabilised but sizeable rates of sea-level rise can continue for more than 1000 years.

This study shows that if CO2 […]


AVOID 1: Reducing the uncertainty in simple model projections

December 19, 2011

Simple climate models are widely used in most climate mitigation pathways studies, including AVOID and the Committee on Climate Change’s carbon budget analysis, but there are questions regarding their reliability and how key assumptions influence the results for aggressive mitigation scenarios. The aim of this report is […]


AVOID 1: Avoided climate change in an Earth system ensemble

July 5, 2011

An Earth system model, HadCM3C, is used to explore the consequences of the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions compared to a ‘business as usual’ scenario.

The model is significantly more advanced than models typically used for providing mitigation advice. We use a collection of model runs, known as […]

AVOID 1: The AVOID Programme and Climate Change Scenarios

A presentation giving a summary of the AVOID 1 programme’s  emissions pathway results, including:

How is a 2°C target defined?
It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do so. Early action maximizes chance of achieving this.
There is some limited flexibility […]


AVOID 1: Simulation of AVOIDed impacts on crop productivity and food security

August 5, 2010

This report describes an assessment of the effects of climate policy on the crop productivity and food security. The study had two components. The first used a crop simulation model to simulate the effect of climate change on maize productivity. The second used these results, with earlier simulations […]