The impacts of climate change avoided by future reductions in emissions as defined in the Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (B2c)

This report presents an assessment of the global and regional impacts of climate change under climate scenarios based on the Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDCs) declared by parties to the UNFCCC as of early November 2015 and as interpreted by DECC. The estimated total emissions in 2030 are 54 GtCO2eq. Impacts depend on emissions after 2030, … Read more

Literature review and synthesis of recent climate change impacts research (B1b)

This report presents an assessment of the evidence on the global and regional impacts of climate change that was presented in AR5 together with research that has been published subsequently. It draws together results from several independent studies across a number of sectors, and seeks to present them in a consistent form as far as … Read more

What future global impacts on people could be avoided by limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees? (B2b)

  Without rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions, the effects that the climate has on global society will be increasingly felt and could in some cases intensify by the end of the century. The AVOID 2 research programme has modelled how climate change will affect people across the globe, such as through water availability and … Read more

What are climate ‘tipping points’ and how likely are they? (A5)

Evidence from ice core and sediment records shows that in the past, Earth’s climate has reached critical thresholds, triggering abrupt and rapid change. Whilst the reasons behind such ‘tipping points’ are not always clear, evidence from climate models shows that they could be reached again as the planet warms in response to greenhouse gas emissions. However, this risk cannot yet be … Read more

Reversing climate change by large scale deployment of carbon-dioxide removal through BECCS (D2b)

This report focuses on the timescales of climate reversibility under a range of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) scenarios. The experiments performed here are based around a narrative that emissions are strongly mitigated over the 21st century with a view that climate forcing is stabilised by 2100 but the 2°C target is missed. … Read more

Literature review of potential for adaptation to climate change impacts (B1c)

Executive summary Very few studies have yet assessed the feasibility of adaptation to climate change on a global scale, and there are limited assessments of the feasibility of adaptation even at the local scale in a number of sectors for many regions. Where adaptation is physically feasible, the issue is not only whether adaptation will … Read more

Assessing the challenges of global long-term mitigation scenarios (C2a)

The implications of global mitigation to achieve different long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) can be investigated in integrated assessment models (IAMs), which provide a large number of outputs including technology deployment levels, economic costs, carbon prices, annual rates of decarbonisation, degree of global net negative emissions required, as well as utilisation levels for fossil fuel plants. … Read more

The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation to achieving long-term temperature goals (C2b)

In the latest (fifth) assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) non-CO2 emissions accounted for 28% of total GHG emissions in 2010, when measured on the basis of their global warming potential (relative to CO2) over a 100-year timespan, a measure known as GWP100. The single largest source of these emissions is agriculture, with … Read more

Representing the behavioural dimension of energy demand in stringent mitigation scenarios (C4)

In many low carbon scenario projections, energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side mitigation actions contribute a significant share of energy and emissions reductions. This study investigates the representation of behavioural dimensions in energy systems models, such as barriers to energy efficiency and policies to overcome them, as well as behavioural changes such as shifts from … Read more

How can reducing energy demand help keep global warming below 2 degrees? Policy Card C4

How can reducing energy demand help keep global warming below 2 degrees? Policy Card C4 People and businesses can be encouraged by targeted policies to change their behaviour around using energy and energy efficient technologies. Policy tools such as regulations, standards and financial instruments can lower energy demand, and result in health and economic co-benefits. … Read more